International Monetary Fund increases growth projection for Nigeria

US-ECONOMY-IMF

The correlation with the ups and downs of crude oil prices is clear. But oil prices have been stabilizing since February this year.

China is forecast to grow 6.3% in 2019 and 6.1% in 2020.

But lingering tensions on global trade still cast a shadow over the outlook for global growth, along with other downside risks including uncertainties surrounding Brexit and looming debt risks in several countries, the International Monetary Fund said.

This table illustrates country-by-country 2018 economic growth along with projections for 2019 and 2020.

The outlook partly reflects brighter prospects for trade negotiations between China and the United States.

"This is a delicate moment", IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said at a press briefing in Washington.

Looking further ahead, the International Monetary Fund forecasted 1.9 per cent growth for the Canadian economy in 2020 and 1.6 per cent growth in 2024, again largely in line with expected global trends.

Commenting on emerging markets, Gopinath said: " Emerging markets have experienced some resumption in portfolio flows, a decline in sovereign borrowing costs, and a strengthening of their currencies relative to the U.S. dollar.

"The IMF said that global growth is set to plateau at about 3.6 percent over the medium term beyond 2020, sustained by the increase in the relative size of economies, such as those of China and India, which are projected to have robust growth by comparison to slower-growing advanced and emerging market economies (even though Chinese growth will eventually moderate)", the report said.

Of the high-frequency indicators of industry, growth in the manufacturing component of the index of industrial production (IIP) slowed to 1.3% in January.

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The IMF's estimate matches the rate given by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN/ESCAP), and is faster than the downward-revised 6.4% forecast given by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank last week.

"Beyond 2020, global growth is expected to stabilise at around 3½ per cent, bolstered mainly by growth in China and India and their increasing weights in world income", she said.

USD/JPY was falling before the data but sank further afterwards to hit an 8-day low of 111.03.

The IMF said many risks to global growth would remain in place for the foreseeable future. There was also weakened spending on consumer durables and automobiles, export orders fell as a result of the US-China trade actions, and growth fell to 6.0% in the second half of 2018, from 6.8% in the first half.

The release further mentioned that Bank of Ghana resolved nine insolvent banks over a period of 18 months, in line with its commitment to clean up the banking sector; and structural reforms to strengthen public financial management and oversight of the state-owned enterprises have continued.

Specifically, it says a continued fiscal consolidation is needed to bring down public debt, strengthening goods and services tax compliance and lowering subsidies. That will keep interest rates low.

Money, money everywhere and yet more debt! There is a need for greater multilateral cooperation to resolve trade conflicts, to address climate change and risks from cybersecurity, and to improve the effectiveness of worldwide taxation.

The revision demonstrated the great resilience of the Chinese economy amid global headwinds, boosting confidence that the world's second largest economy will maintain stable, healthy and high-quality development in the years to come.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin disputed the IMF's assessment that U.S. growth was slowing and told lawmakers he was not concerned about a recent inversion of the Treasury yield curve - often a harbinger of recession. "In that case, policymakers will need to adjust", she added. -China trade tensions, macroeconomic stress in Turkey and Argentina, tighter credit policies in China and financial tightening plus a normalisation of monetary policy in advanced economies.

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