Tropical wave heading toward Caribbean, 50% chance of development

USVI In Path Of New Weather System; Tropical Cyclone Development Possible By Midweek -

With a little more than two weeks to go in the 2018 hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center began watching another tropical wave Sunday.

The large swatch of rough weather about 200 miles east of the eastern rim of the Caribbean Sea has a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next five days, down from an 80 percent chance earlier in afternoon on Monday.

"This system has not become any better organized over the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions may not become as conducive as previously anticipated", the advisory said.

As of Monday morning the system has a 90-percent chance of turning into a named storm, the National Hurricane Center forecasts.

More news: How to join our World War One photo gallery of appreciation

On the other hand, odds would be against development if the system maintains a more westward track over the mountainous islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

The system is now in an environment that does not support development, but that could change depending on the track it takes. This squally weather is expected to spread across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday and then across Hispaniola on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

According to records from 1851 to 2015, there have been 1619 tropical storms and 991 hurricanes. Hurricane Kate hit the Florida Panhandle on November 20, 1985, with 120 mph winds; Wrong Way Lenny nailed the northern Antilles with 150 mph winds on November 17, 1999; and most famously, Mitch belted Honduras with 180 mph winds on October 25, 1998. Strong wind shear can shred apart tropical storms or hurricanes.

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