IMD forecasts normal monsoon this year

Rains, thunderstorm likely in Nagpur Max temp in Nagpur is expected to be 38 degree Celsius on Saturday

The prediction stands at a moderate error estimated of plus-minus 5 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). Since 2012, IMD is also using the dynamical global climate forecasting system (CFS) model developed under the Monsoon Mission to generate forecasts. Monsoon is considered to be normal when rainfall is between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average.

A normal monsoon will not only aid agriculture growth but could have a positive impact on the overall rural economy crucial for the ruling BJP government as it faces critical state elections followed by the big National Polls in 2019.

Assessment of onset of monsoon will be done on May 15.

More news: IShares MSCI Hong Kong (EWH) Declines 0.77% for April 15

Details, such as how the monsoon will pan out over the country and the quantum of rainfall in July and August - the key monsoon months - would be made available in the department's June update, said IMD chief K.J. Ramesh at a press conference in New Delhi.

However, the arrival of the monsoon and its distribution would play an important part so far as the economy was concerned, experts said. Less than 90 per cent LPA is termed "deficient" monsoon, and 90-96 per cent of the same is considered "below normal". Last year, rainfall was close to normal at 95% of the LPA, while in 2016 rains were recorded at 97% of LPA. The country receives some 70 per cent of its annual rainfall during the four-month Monsoon season. India had faced deficient rains during monsoon season in 2015 and 2014, making both these years drought years.

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